Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Market for Mandate

Honesty is such an important virtue, but in places where trust can be misplaced, credibility needs an audit. In every deal struck, the parties involved look at their own benefits before the illusive benefits of synergy arrive in the elaborate non zero-sum games. Although trust is claimed as the bedrock of any business, this trust is easier arrived at by keeping the other party honest.

And one of the most crucial deal made is the five year periodic bargain for an endorsement at the seat of power. The vote is akin to awarding of a contract, the stipulations of this contract are present in the constitution and the contract is awarded by the voters. Much like the tenders that are floated in the newspapers, the bidders have to come up with a winning offer for the contract. Ideally the winning offer should be of just & fair representation, development and what have you, but in India the offer can be converted into plain old money.

At the recent elections and in the elections of the past a curious resource is created, one that is perishable and whose rate is not fixed: The Commodified Vote. The selling price of a vote is subject to so many political conditions that the parallel to the market seems almost flawless. If it wasn't illegal, there might have been an exchange for votes with options and derivatives. It might seem naive of the candidates to trust people who sell their votes with keeping their word when the ballot is "secret" yet that is what most candidates have to settle for their money. Hardly a safeguard on their investment. But with the limits imposed by the law and public outrage, the mechanism behind the highest-bidder votes have to necessarily not get too complex or formal yet arrive at a model that delivers.

Enter Mr. Campaign Manager, the instrument for winning elections. It is only fair to have expertise on your side when faced with a seller's market. Make no mistake, if you have voted either because of a convincing campaign or by ending up with a heavier pocket, the Campaign Manager has done his job. The average going rate for a vote in 2009 was Rs. 200 to Rs. 300 depending on who you ask. Anything less and the voter is swindled and anything more and the candidate is desperate. Even at those rates, loyalty is tough to ascertain. There is always a threat that the voter collects from multiple sources and does as he wishes. That is exactly the reason why poll management is such a demanding job.


Therefore I'd like to illustrate an example (Courtesy: Dad) of a successful mechanism of election fraud mastered in India. This is a method to ensure that a vote that is bought does not end up with another candidate on counting day. (Spoiler warning: This method is no longer possible with the advent of Electronic Voting Machines used in India now)

Modus Operandi:
  • Assumption: The money exchange has already taken place prior to the election date
  • On the election day, each candidate is allowed to have his representatives outside the election centers seated at a designated locations.
  • At the start of polling, one of the candidate's representative goes into the center to cast his vote but inadvertently puts the the ballot paper with the candidate's symbol marked in his pocket and walks out without voting.
  • Later when the voter (who sold his vote) turns up at the representative's desk outside the center, he is given the previous ballot paper with the party's symbol marked on it. This is carried with him into the booth and he brings out his new ballot paper, which he hands over to the representative. Thus the operation is repeated all day.
This method obviously is not fool proof i.e. when the voter simply fails to drop the paper in the ballot. But it does ensure that the voter does not vote against the candidate after taking his money, which has to be worth something.


Interesting Reading:

  1. http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/11/on-selling-votes.html
  2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_fraud

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